Why Kamala Lost
Campaigns work, but they only work on the margins
I’m not going to talk about psychology or how people respond on specific issues. There’s a lot worth investigating there, but I’m writing on 11/6/2024, and I think there’s a big issue that’s at risk of getting lost in the discourse: Kamala Harris ran a really good campaign. The fact that it wasn’t enough to win is the thing we’re going to have to grapple with.
Again, not talking about issues or tactics, just results. New Jersey looks to be about 11 points more red than in 2020. Florida is going for Donald Trump by about 10 points more than in 2020. But Michigan is within 4 points of the 2020 result, and within 3 points of 2016. Pennsylvania is even closer. In the states where neither campaign fought, Donald Trump made enormous gains. In the states where both campaigns invested resources, Kamala Harris beat the national trend. By a lot.
Campaigns don’t make Americans want things. They work on the margins to shift results by 2 or 3 or 4 points where it matters most. And here’s what happened in 2024: Republicans won the national popular vote for the first time in 20 years. Since the end of the cold war 35 years ago, a majority of Americans have chosen the Democratic nominee for president seven times. They’ve chosen the Republican nominee just twice. Donald Trump in 2024 is one of those times.
I can’t tell you why American voters chose the way they did, but I can tell you this: it’s not because of a really poor Kamala Harris campaign and it’s not because of a really good Donald Trump campaign — where they both fought over voters, Kamala did better than where people chose with less influence from campaigns.
The people who showed up to vote in 2024 selected Donald Trump for president. In many states, it looks like the exact same pool of voters who chose Donald Trump also chose Democratic Senators (Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona) and abortion rights (Missouri, Montana, Arizona — even a majority of Floridians voted for abortion rights, though they fell short of the 60% needed there).
So if Kamala Harris ran a really effective campaign and voters chose Democratic Senators and abortion rights in many places, what’s the conclusion? Simply: the voters who showed up this year overwhelmingly wanted Donald Trump. They weren’t tricked or goaded by anyone, they chose the candidate they preferred. When given a lot of extra messaging from the Kamala campaign, many of them switched to her, but not enough.
What exactly motivated that choice — and whether it will be good for us — is another conversation.
Bradley L’Herrou is an educator and political consultant who has worked with dozens of Democratic candidates in seven states, including campaigns for Congress, DA, Mayor, State House, County Commission, City Council, and School Board.
